The Dow just smashed through 47,000 for the first time ever, inflation came in cooler than expected at 3.0%, and the Fed’s got the rate-cut machine warming up for next week’s meeting.
Excellent breakdown of the rate cut winners! Your point about consumer discresionary spending is spot on, especially for cruise lines like Carnival. The wealth effect from rising stock portfolios combined with cheaper financing is a double boost for luxury travel. What's intresting about Carnival specifically is they also benefit on the other side, lower rates mean they can refinance their massive debt load from the pandemic at better terms. They've been aggressively paying down debt but still have significant leverage, so every rate cut helps their balance sheet directly. The auto financing comparison is apt too, lots of cruise bookings involve payment plans now, so lower consumer credit costs can drive booking volumes. I'm watching to see if this momentum holds through Q4 and into 2026 bookings, because consumer confidnce can shift fast if unemployment ticks up.
Excellent breakdown of the rate cut winners! Your point about consumer discresionary spending is spot on, especially for cruise lines like Carnival. The wealth effect from rising stock portfolios combined with cheaper financing is a double boost for luxury travel. What's intresting about Carnival specifically is they also benefit on the other side, lower rates mean they can refinance their massive debt load from the pandemic at better terms. They've been aggressively paying down debt but still have significant leverage, so every rate cut helps their balance sheet directly. The auto financing comparison is apt too, lots of cruise bookings involve payment plans now, so lower consumer credit costs can drive booking volumes. I'm watching to see if this momentum holds through Q4 and into 2026 bookings, because consumer confidnce can shift fast if unemployment ticks up.
This is definitely something to follow through Q4 en 2026!