ASML 2024 Q3 after digestion
Last post was a hot reaction post but lets take our time now to digest the Q3 earnings report
ASML: The Chip-Making Wizards and Their Crystal Ball of Mystery 🔮
ASML, the undisputed sorcerers of the semiconductor realm, have unveiled their Q3 2024 earnings report, and it's a bit like a magic show with a surprise ending. They pulled a rabbit out of their hat with dazzling net sales that surpassed expectations, driven by strong demand for their Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) systems and those ever-reliable Installed Base Management services. It's like they conjured up a mountain of gold coins out of thin air! 💰✨
Booking Blues: A Case of Vanishing Demand? 🕵️♂️
Just as we were getting ready to shower ASML with applause, the magic show took an unexpected turn. Net bookings, those crucial indicators of future demand, seemingly vanished into thin air, plummeting a whopping 50% lower than analysts predicted. Instead of the €5.4 billion analysts were expecting, ASML only managed to conjure up €2.6 billion in net bookings. This represents a dramatic drop from the €6.7 billion they pulled in during Q3 2023. Suddenly, we're left scratching our heads and wondering: who missed the mark? 🤔
Was it the analysts, with their fancy forecasting models and attempts to predict the unpredictable? 🔮 Or was it ASML CEO Peter Wennink, who's been cautiously chanting the "flat year" mantra since way back in 2023?
Q3 Highlights: Still Sparkling Like a Magic Wand! ✨
Despite the booking bewilderment, ASML's Q3 performance still shines brighter than a freshly polished magic wand:
Net sales: €7.5 billion - Enough to buy a magical castle (with a moat and a dragon)! 🏰🐉
Gross margin: 50.8% - Keeping those margins healthy and spellbinding! 💪
Net income: €2.1 billion - Time to throw a wizarding feast (but maybe not too extravagant, considering those vanishing bookings)! 🎉
The Great Booking Mystery: Did Someone Steal the Magic? 🪄
Those lower-than-expected net bookings have certainly cast a shadow over the proceedings. It's like ASML was soaring through the sky on a magic carpet, and suddenly hit a patch of unexpected turbulence. But is this a sign of a looming storm, or just a temporary blip in their magical journey?
ASML remains optimistic, pointing to the continued strength in AI and the impending arrival of their revolutionary High-NA EUV systems. These technological wonders are like powerful spells, ready to enchant the chip-making world (and hopefully conjure up some more bookings)! ✨
Outlook: Peering into the Murky Future 🔮
ASML's crystal ball seems a bit cloudy when it comes to predicting the future. While they're painting a rosy picture for Q4 2024, with net sales expected to land between €8.8 billion and €9.2 billion (and those shiny new High-NA EUV systems making their grand entrance), the longer-term outlook is a bit hazier. They're still aiming for a respectable €30 billion to €35 billion in revenue for 2025, but with those net bookings taking a nosedive, it's like trying to navigate through a thick fog. 🌫️
Keeping an Eye on the Magic Meter: Will the Spells Fade? 👀
And speaking of those net bookings, we definitely need to keep a close eye on them in the coming quarters. A 50% drop is nothing to sneeze at, even if ASML already has a bulging order backlog of over €35 billion. Yes, you read that right! They have 1.5 years of revenue already booked! It's like having a magic vault overflowing with gold, but still worrying about whether you'll have enough to buy a new wand next year. 😅
But hey, let's not get too gloomy. ASML is still the king of the EUV castle, and those High-NA systems are poised to revolutionize the chip-making world. It's like they're holding a winning lottery ticket, just waiting for the numbers to be called. 🤑
So, while the future may be a bit uncertain, ASML is still a company with a bright future. They're like a skilled magician, pulling rabbits out of hats and dazzling us with their technological prowess. Let's see if they can keep the magic alive and continue their impressive performance! 🪄✨